Gold forecast to lose shine in 2021 as prices fall

Fitch Solutions has downgraded its gold price forecast for this year as prices of the yellow metal have trended towards a seven-month low.

The research and analytics provider lowered its $US1850 ($2379) an ounce price forecast down to $US1780 an ounce.

Gold prices have spiralled down a declining trend from the highs of $US2056 per ounce on August 6 to $US1723 per ounce at the time of writing.

Surbiton Associates noted that gold prices still remained relatively high despite the fall.

Fitch also stated that prices would remain supported over March to April as inflation would likely pick up.

This will be temporary as prices are expected to trend lower on a 6-12-month horizon.

“Gold prices have trended lower since the start of 2021, amid rising US treasury yields and an increasingly positive outlook for the economic recovery,” the company stated.

“Investor sentiment towards gold has also continued to ease significantly in recent months following the rally recorded in (the first half of 2020) and the peak in prices reached in August last year.

“… We continue to hold a below-consensus view on gold prices, in 2021 and beyond.”

Fitch has maintained its forecasts for 2022 and beyond, expecting the precious metal’s prices to trend lower in the coming years as bond yields and interest rates increase.

Surbiton managing director Sandra Close said: “When it comes to a speculative market with plenty of action, at the moment Bitcoin is obviously the greatest game in town.

“I cannot predict the future but it is likely gold will still be seen as a safe store of value, as it is tangible and you can hold (it) in your hand.”

Kirkland Lake Gold dropped from $80 in August 2020 to $44 yesterday, while Newcrest Mining fell from $37 to $24.46 over the same period.

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